Another water chestnut season in China is fast approaching (harvest is December through early March). It will be an interesting year, being that we are coming off of a very short year, strong pent up demand, and in the midst of a global slowdown. What will the season bring??
Frozen and Canned processors scramble for product.
The water chestnut acreage this year is up 20% but due to bad growing conditions. yields are way off and it appears that the market will still be extremely short. In addition to the normal delays encountered during production, we must wait for CIQ (China Inspection and Quarantine) approval of lands to be used for water chestnuts, if they are to be exported.
Initial pricing this year is 40 - 50% higher than last years price. The reason for the current high price is due to the shortage coming into the new crop and the need to fill the pipeline. This applies for both to canned and frozen processors. The canned users are generally willing to pay higher prices then the frozen users therefore they will get initial raw material coming from the fieldsl because of there willingness to pay a premium.
CIQ (China Inspection and Quarantine) delays due to regulation that makes it mandatory that fields be registered with them. This can create some bottlenecks in the supply as packers need to await the certification for the fields being used as well as CIQ approval of finished product before exportation.
The Chinese currency continues to appreciate against the dollar albeit at a much slower rate. Ocean and trucking freight cost remain high but this is starting to come under recessionary pressure.
What to expect?
I would envisage that after the initial replenishment of supply that we will see prices come down due to world wide slowdown. We will encounter consumer resistance to high prices especially for a luxury vegetable such as water chestnuts. Just as we have seen the price of natural resources plummet in the past few months, I believe the food chain will experience the same collapse.
Time will tell, and if I were a betting man, I would bet on lower prices next April or June (and possibly sooner).
The rathe of world wide recession will reck havoc on frozen vegetable pricing in 2009.
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